Pre-season matches allow us to draw some conclusions about the expected performances of a team for their first official encounters.
There is lot of uncertainty, the coaches perform a lot of experiences and because of that we cannot come to definitive conclusions, only indicators.
I like to do some live Trading on pre-season matches and friendlies. If we’re talking about national team friendlies, I like it even more. For a very simple reason:
The Live odds of pre-season matches and friendlies are often misadjusted.
This happens because normal statistics do not apply to these matches. Our approach to these kinds of encounters must be totally different:
- On a “real” match the coach’s objective is to win;
- On a pre-season match that might not be the main goal.
If you ask a coach if his objective for that specific pre-season match is to win, he will probably tell you that it is. Truthfully the coach will value much more the opportunity to experiment with his squad trying to find new data that might come in very handy during the regular season.
Be careful though, I’ll give you my advice for these matches:
On pre-season matches, never bet before the match starts!
After the match starts we can start to think about whether it makes sense to bet on one team or the other.
If a coach’s objective is to test and, during the match, we see that the team is not properly functioning, that is, the favourite is not being able to create danger opportunities with their current tactics; we have here an amazing opportunity to Lay that team at a completely exaggerated odd.
After that, as time goes on, the market will realize that the (according to the pre-live statistics) favourite team is not so favourite after all and the odd will readjust.
Take my advice then, don’t bet pre-live on friendlies and pre-season matches.
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