Paulo Rebelo

My journey as a Professional Trader is the result of two separate routes: one as a Trader in Stock Market and other as Punter (betting online).

Trader in Stock Market

Betting exchange and Stock exchange

The betting exchange (Betfair) is no more than a market where supply and demand meets.

Being a market, it is affected by the same forces and laws identified in the markets for financial assets (stocks).

The experience I gained through 6 years trading in stocks markets has simplified the learning process and helped me identify and predict the movements in betting markets (Betfair).

My journey on Stocks Market

I started to do my first studies on stock exchange in 1999, by the age of 17, before I went to Economy University in Porto.

I was disappointed by college because in the first years it isn’t taught what I wanted to know for my future profession. So I abandoned college after the first semester and decided to learn for myself. I studied the books on that subject and I began to develop and test theories on the stock exchange market.

I managed to apply profitable strategies in stocks, but due to my age, lack of experience and degree, I wasn’t able to win the trust for someone to let me do his portfolio management. I had no funds to invest, so I decided to finish college although never leaved stocks away, as I continued to profit and used the money to pay college.

Punter

First contact with betting

When I return to college I met the world of betting. As almost all my colleagues I started with curiosity and with small bets at BWin. I early managed to get profit.

Motivation to study bets

I was able to get a higher profit with bets than with stocks (although the volatility of the results was higher too) which made me dedicate more time studying betting.

I started to make simple statistical analyzes before the games. The study of this analyzes was very productive and I started to have consistent positive results.

And then appeared Sports Odds Trading

Trading

About one year after I started doing simple bets in BWin I met Betfair.

Straight away I realized that I could apply all my trader experience in financial markets as well as my experience as a Punter.

Scientific studying

After a few successful experiences, I decided to apply the same dedication given to the stock market and apply it in sports bets market (Betfair). I approached teachers of different subjects for guidance and I developed a gigantic database of the English League (the competition with most money flow). Through correlations and regressions, I created a model that could predict with a certain confidence break, which price should undergo in the market (Betfair).

I managed to obtain positive results in a consistent way by continually applying and improving the model.

Trading Live

Even though some attempts weren’t successful, I didn’t give up working with live games, because it’s during the game that the majority of transactions are made and it’s where the biggest opportunities are.

After identifying, analyzing and correction of some mistakes done, I managed to step-by-step profit with live games. When I started winning consistently I dedicated myself exclusively to trading live.

Professional Trader

Trading

Like many of my colleagues that had high grades during the degree, I had many invitations to work in banks, consulting and insurance companies, but I decided to exclusively dedicate my time to stock and bets trading.

Weighted in my decision the fact that I would be my own boss and consequentially would decide what strategies I should follow.

It was a risky decision, mainly because at that time there weren’t any known professionals and I was sure of anything.

This was, actually one of the reasons why I decided to create this website. When I started, would be of great value to know that I could become a professional in an activity that by definition is leisure.

By leaving my testimony, I intent to covey that living off the bets is not for everyone, but it is possible for those who possesses inborn qualities, and manage to apply with discipline the scientific method to the bets study.


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