Trading on the favorite, last minutes, match drawn

“Good night Paulo

I have a question to make you regarding a situation that happened to me this weekend on the Manchester City vs Newcastle game.

It was 1-1, time was passing and City was over Newcastle more and more. I was convinced that City will score another sooner or later. The match odds market tendency was the rise on City and Newcastle and simultaneous drop on the draw, this around minute 70.

I was applying Lay/Back technique to make money with the odds escalade.

Suddenly, City scores and I had placed a Lay bet which had also been corresponded in the market, but I had just placed a Back bet which had not been corresponded. My position was still open at the moment of the goal.

What could I do in a situation like that? I predicted that Manchester City will score a goal and I was right, but instead of me earning with it, I lost money. Notice that right after the goal I closed my position loosing and after I tried to recover some money, but without doing anything too risky.

Thanks” [hugofigomes]

About your behavior, I think you forgot the number 1 rule in trading (few exceptions): all trading positions must have punter value.

This is, if you were convinced that M. City will score, any trading in M. City had to be first with Back and only then with Lay bets.

In general speaking, the answer is:

… it depends. Depends of the value you give for the odd in comparison of the value of your punter profile.

In scenarios like these, game tied and over the middle of the second half, if you prefer to do trading in the favorite, you should have the following in mind:

a) Supposing that you thing the Manchester City odd is low and you’re convicted that M. City will score, you should be able to not do anything on M. City selection,

Why? Because if you think the odd is low, you should place a Lay bet and wait for the odd to rise, although as you foresee a goal, in case it happens you will have a big loss.

Therefore, in this situation the best you can do is nothing.

b) On the other hand, if you think that M. City odd is high, what you should do is to place Backs on M. City and wait for the goal of M. City to happen or wait for the odds to drop until the fair value which is unlikely at this time of the game. You should keep monitoring the market and when you think the M. City odd is fair again you should do Lay even if that implies small losses.

Now is about your punter profile. I must say that a few people have the ability to do this because this strategy will lead you into many small losses. However, if your analysis is right, in the long term, the few times you will earn (goal of M. City or drop of the odds without goal) will more than compensate every small loss you had.

If your punter profile is not compatible with this strategy, if you get very sad whenever you lose some money, the best you can do is actually not do anything in this situation on M. City. I must confess that I know very few people that can apply this strategy with success.

PR