Trading for beginners

The article is a good example of what was my thought when I created this website: a truly gamblers community where everyone contributes.

This article was written by Miguel, whose nickname is Nya-Mick and I thank him for his contribution to the community.

It’s a great article for beginners.

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Well, I realize you are starting and I would be very happy to help, but I can’t give you a fair idea of what’s trading without writing a book itself and then I doubt that you could read it without fall asleep. Have you noticed that Paulo does videos “for everything and nothing” because actually it’s much easier to explain something to the camera in 5 minutes the same thing that would take you hours to write. Seems unreal but that’s what it is. They say one photo is worth a thousand words, then think, one video is worth a thousand photos. Now do the math.

Anyway, for you to succeed in the betting world as a trader, what you gotta do is look for markets with swings and use them to earn money. Buy (buy = Lay bet) high and sell (sell = Back bet) when it is low or buy low and sell when it rises.

With a quick search on Google images I found this game:

I don’t really know what this game was but I think you understand that this is a picture of a graphic taken when the game ended. It shows the variation of Murray’s winning odd, which started at 1.50 and ended in victory because it dropped till 1.01.

What happened in this game was:

• Murray’s winning odd started at 1.50 – Murray was the favorite
• For some time it remains at 1.50 – because the game haven’t started yet (pre-live period) and/or the game started and remained balanced
• It raised up to 2.50 – ‘dog’ was hitting him
• Came down to 1.60 – Murray came round, evened the break, whatever
• Raised again up to 2.75 – the same story when it raised up to 2.50
• Reached 3.0 – here the game was bad and ‘dog’ was around 1.50
• It dropped until 1.75 – maybe Murray drew in sets
• Raised one more time up to 2.25 – it weird now, it must had been an exciting match ;D
• It dropped again to 1.50 – Murray finally went ahead in the scorer
• It kept going down till 1.01 – Murray ruled the rest of the match and he won.

Now that you know all the oscillations of the Murray’s odd, taking in 100 € you could had won thousands. How? Easy.

• Murray’s winning odd started at 1.50 – you would do a Lay bet
• For some time it remains at 1.50 – don’t do anything
• It raised up to 2.50 – Back bet
• Came down to 1.60 – Lay again
• Raised again up to 2.75 – Back again
• Reached 3.0 – you should have done the last Back here but as you just did it above, do another Back here, it might drop because you’re betting in the favorite
• It dropped until 1.75 – that’s what I said, it dropped, do Lay
• Raised one more time up to 2.25 – do your last Back here because after that Murray has to finally win this match
• It dropped again to 1.50 – Back again because the odd will keep dropping
• It kept going down till 1.01 – last Lay for you to sleep peacefully, although you don’t need to do it because you’re sure that Murray will win.

That’s what trading is. You buy low and you sell high, meaning Lay bet low and Back bet high, whatever you want to call it. The idea is to understand the oscillations and use them to make greens.

Of course that playing a bit with this because I already know the line of the whole graphic. When the game is running we don’t know where the odds will end and where the odds will turn around. Unfortunately there is no software to tell us the direction of the odds. If there was such software is was worth millions and the owner wouldn’t sell it.

The job of the trader is to understand in firsthand what will be the odds evolution and take advantage of it to make bets accordingly and thus make money. Using technical, tactical, instinct, experience, tips, faith in God, luck, tips from friends, the color of player’s equipment, finally, there is everything.

The most important is the EV. EV is everything when the matter involves investment/return. I cannot explain here and now that is EV. Google for Expected Value in sports betting to understand how important is to make decisions based on positive EV and not the result of the game itself.

Returning to the beginning, what you gotta do is find a market where it is easy for you to identify these oscillations before they happen and then make your bets accordingly. For some it happens in football, others in horses and others in tennis. In the Over/Under 2.5 market, in the Correct Score market, or in the Match Odds market. In the winner of a tournament or in the winning team of bicycle tour of France.

The easiest, and where almost everyone starts, is betting on a favorite team and wait that it scores to close right after that. Take a look, for example, in Portugal football match from tomorrow and bet some Portugal winning at 1.30. Wait for Portugal to score, the odd will drop to 1.10 and close. Do you have “fear” that Portugal don’t score and you lose the entire stake? Then bet some in the 0-0 final score to compensate. And what if is Iceland who scores first? Well… See how it’s not easy?

It’s important for you to understand that there are no foolproof techniques. There is no golden goose in the betting. No one has found a method that is 100% profitable. There isn’t any. There are intelligent traders and decisions based on EV.

To finish I’ll tell you a real case of a friend of mine who has a master play that, I think, illustrates how thinks a good trader.

Not long ago, Sporting will receive Porto in Lisbon in a game for the championship or the cup. As it’s already a habit Sporting wasn’t paying well and wasn’t winning nothing. On the other hand, Porto was playing well and winning everybody. On that Sunday, and even that Sporting will play at home, Sporting winning odd was at 3.75 and Porto was the favorite with an odd around 2.50 or so.

On the Tuesday before the Sunday match, Sporting will also play at home against and English team (I think it was Everton) for UEFA Cup. That Tuesday game ended with Sporting winning for 3 or 4 on oh, I don’t remember very well. As soon the game ends, my friend with me in the coffee shop, logs in to Betfair and bet some money on Sporting victory against Porto on the next Sunday.

On Wednesday and on Thursday, with all the uproar after the large victory against the British, everybody run to bet on Sporting victory of next Sunday against Porto. All that money made Sporting odd fall. On Friday when the odd had already dropped a few ticks, my friend went again at Betfair and made Lay on Sporting, and gets a big green! Yes it still 2 days left for the game starts and he already won money with it, no matter what the final result of the game is.

As you can see there were no software explaining it. This is the real spirit, intelligence of a trader. In a certain event “that nothing has to do with the other” he predicts an Odds variation and used it to win money.