Paulo Rebelo Diary

With today’s example I hope to transmit you 3 things:

1º we should not desolate when we got one red.

2º it is very important to analyze our mistakes.

3º our mistakes can become opportunities if we are smart enough to realize it and turn it on our behalf.

Whenever I loose in some situation due to my mistake, I don’t panic. I analyze the situation in order to avoid the same mistake again. After backing that in a similar situation I will not lose money again, I try to win if the situation repeats itself.

In this topic link , I shared with you how I lost 2500€ because I bet in favor of no more goals at 1,01 odd.

Resuming, the game was decided and we were at the last play of the match. I bet that it will not be any more goals. But the Lyon players were with great strength to score and the managed to score in that last play. It was my mistake.

Portugal 4-0 Spain

On today’s match, Portugal was winning for 3-0 and he recovers the ball in his defensive midfield. At that time we knew it would be the last play of the match. The easiest was to bet that it would not be any more goals because the game was decided and Portugal had the possession in his midfield.

I almost bet in favor of no more goals but I remembered that other match Benfica-Lyon where I lost and I decided not to do it.

Then I saw in the Portuguese players the same strength that I saw in the Lyon players on the last play of the match (look Pepe running towards the offensive midfield, it’s not normal with the game decided seeing Pepe do that in the last play of the match) and then I decided to enter the market in favor of another goal in the last play.

Perfect counterattack and…

… thank you Hugo Almeida!

Not only haven’t I lost any money because I didn’t bet against more goals, as I actually won money betting in favor of more goals.

I only entered the market +-3,5 goals after Portugal scored the 3-0.

According to betfair, the last price that I bet was at 1.08.

My final bet on this market was in fact do nothing.

Besides I haven’t Back Under 3,5 goals, I had lays prepared for the last minutes to trade and I simply let them be there. As it was the last play of the match, the forcing to drop the price was huge. As the play moved on, the bets entered, and I let them be.

Making that mistake on Benfica vs Lyon was the best that could have happened to me for today’s match.

Doing the math, my strategy and my bank came out to win.

Neste dia não fiz nenhum jogo.

In this day I haven’t entered any match.

I spend the afternoon with an institution nearby my home.

I promised them one video to help promoting and publish their work, as soon as I find the time.

I will put that on Bet Solidarity.

At night I went to play football with some friends (cold, very cold).

I’ve been all day working with my team to launch this contest: “Are you ready to be a successful trader?”

When we finally thought we could rest, so many website accesses threw us down the server.

Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic de Bilbau

For those who haven’t seen the game, the result can be quite misleading.

Bilbau was the best team that played in Real Madrid stadium this year, at least the team who played the better football.

When the game started, we saw a defiant Bilbau but Real Madrid was the one who has the low odd.

Although I believed that Real Madrid will win the match, I thought that it would not be that easy as the odds suggested.

My strategy was to bet against Real Madrid and wait for the odds to level up.

And they were leveling…

19th minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 1-0

When Real Madrid first scores I was winning 260€ (* 1) but I had 3707,04€ (*2) against Real Madrid.

For those who didn’t know Betangel this means that:

If the match ended right now:

… I would won3707.04€ if Real Madrid didn’t win.

… And I would lose -601.02€ (*3) if Real Madrid win.

However the most important value is 260,11€ because it says how much we can win now if we split equally the profit for all the market selections.

When Real Madrid scored the odd dropped and I’ve lost money -282.46€

19th minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 1-0

I’ve analyzed carefully the players reaction to that unfair result so far.

I was surprised because Athletic didn’t accuse the goal and kept playing good football. So I kept a cautious strategy and mostly against Real Madrid.

Real Madrid scored the second goal and I was still in red, although I’ve slightly reduced to -249.98€

30th minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 2-0

What now?

The second goal is usual a key moment in football matches. Some teams relax when they reach 2-0, others motivate even more and go to the rout. The losing teams get usually discouraged, but some other teams take advantage of such relaxation of the adversary.

I’ve carefully analyzed the psychological moment of the players, for example by their reaction on divided balls where the Athletic players were clearly winning.

My conclusions: Real Madrid players started to think on the next match (Barcelona vs Real Madrid). Athletic felt that relaxation from Real Madrid and didn’t gave up, despite the handicap of 2 goals.

Strategy to follow:

With the odd between 1,01 and 1,02 it’s rewarding to bet against Real Madrid.

Because:

… How the match was going it was not likely that Real scored another.

… There was still a long time before the match ended. The odd was not going to drop below 1,01 and after that lay bet it was still possible to bet in favor of Real Madrid at 1,01 for a long time.

… The prize for a possible Athletic goal was big (Real Madrid odd could rise several ticks) for such small risk (losing 1tick at most, this is lay at 1,02 and then be forced to do back at 1,01).

Being so, let’s bet against Real Madrid.

(even though I was fully convinced that Real Madrid will win the game, according to my analysis, 1,01 odd for Real Madrid is too low and unfair)

40th minute of the match: Athletic Bilbau scores, 2-1

As I predicted Athletic scored.

I had a total of 52.217,84€ bet against Real Madrid.

Notice that all that money represents only 1.044,36€ of liability in Betfair.

Look:

Meaning, someone with 1.044,36€ in Betfair bank can make a Lay bet at 1,02 odd of 52.217,84€.

With Athletic on top of the game I knew that I had until half time to ask for the 2nd goal from Athletic.

The goal didn’t came and I lost the change to win in this match more than 30.000€.

There is one important fact for this match: Mourinho wasn’t in the bench because he was serving punishment. However he could come down to the bathhouse in the half time. I knew the game will end then. Mourinho would make his players understand that Barcelona match was until the next week and that it was very important to win this game with Athletic in order to visit Barcelona in the first place. He would motivate his players to re-enter the game with ambition and not relaxed as they were after their second goal.

Strategy to follow:

As Real Madrid odds raised with the Athletic goal, and with the explanation I just gave about the half time, I decided to bet this time Back on Real Madrid.

57th minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 3-1

And as I predicted once more, Real Madrid scored.

By that time I had 48.833€ in favor of Real Madrid, because I was plenty convicted that Real would enter the second half searching for the goal.

If the goal didn’t show and the match walked to the end with only one goal difference, my position would be different.

62nd minute of the match: Real Madrid scores, 4-1

After the 3-1 I decided to split the profit between all selections.

The 4-1 came when I hadn’t any open position and I had already a total profit of 6.673€.

As the match was decided I moved to the market Over/Under 5,5 goals.

By that time I realized that Real Madrid was happy with the result and was again thinking on Barcelona match.

However the odd of the Over 5,5 goals was very low due to the recent goals, so I grab it to trade on the escalade of the odd.

I left that market with 716.90€ profit and moved to work now on the Under 5,5 goals as it had more liquidity right now.

I was trading in the drop of the odds.

In the last minutes, the match was broken and I realized that the goal could come at any minute even though I wasn’t that sure to bet in favor of the goal.

I split the profit equally for the Over and the Under.

I did wrong… the goal actually came in the last minute. I could have won more money.

Even though, in the Over/Under 5,5 goals market I won a total of 3.129€.

Total profit for this match: 9.466,59 €

Sevilla 1-2 Mallorca

In this game I found an opportunity to bet with great value even before the match started.

If I wasn’t going to work with the match I would have done Lay on Sevilla at 1,67 and kept it. On disposal of the two teams was clear to me: Sevilla would encounter a lot of troubles to win Mallorca.

(I am going to give an explanation based on a pure football analyzes (not trading))

In my opinion, Sevilla coach made a mistake to let rest so many players due to the matches of the National Teams in the middle of the last week. He underestimated Mallorca and trusted the home factor, maybe due to the good results that Sevilla had at home (at Sánchez Pizjuán stadium) since he arrived at the club.

Sevilla has the most spectacular attacks of entire Europe with Kanouté, Negredo and Fabiano. But they can’t do anything if the ball doesn’t reach them in good conditions. It’s a petty to see a player with the class (and the age) of Kanouté having to come to midfield fetch the ball.

I realize that Mallorca would run the match as soon as I saw the initial team’s compositions, more precisely the midfields of both teams. D. Guzmán (watch out for this player! I foresee him going to one of the biggest European teams), Martí and Victor easily could suppress a Sevilla without Navas and Capel (both injured), and without Cáceres, Zokora and Romaric (all resting). Cigarini isn’t good enough for Sevilla.

The match begins:

Clear strategy:

Lay on Sevilla for two reasons:

… First because of my football analysis Mallorca starts with advantage.

… Secondly because analyzing the market, the odd at 1,67 is clearly influenced by the excellent results that Sevilla had in the last home matches and the good results in general since Sevilla switched the coach. Although the team from the other games is different from the team today… therefore those results should be carefully weighted. The market hadn’t that factor into account, which is crucial, in my opinion.

Match begins: 0-0

As predicted, Mallorca governed the match since the beginning. He had several opportunities to score but he didn’t. Sevilla couldn’t make a single shot in the first 30 minutes.

It was a petty that Mallorca didn’t score, because I had a lot of money against Sevilla and if Mallorca scored I had won a significant profit.

The market realized in the practice what I had predicted in the theory and I won 1.728€ without any goal, only by the rise of Sevilla’s odd.

33rd minute of the match: 0-0, Sevilla’s odd reaches a pick

Then the match turns, Sevilla wants his pride back and decides to run the game. We were crossing a phase where the psychological moment of Sevilla players was clearly stronger than Mallorca players. Sevilla reached twice the Mallorca goal area with danger.

By that time I had more money on the side of Sevilla trying to take advantage of the predictable goal scored by Sevilla.

But football is like that… in the best period for Sevilla, it’s Mallorca who scores.

36th minute of the match: Mallorca scores, 0-1

The goal of Mallorca came when I had more money in favor of Sevilla, so I lost some of the money that I had won with the rise of Sevilla’s odd.

I moved to Mallorca market and took advantage of the odd’s drop because Mallorca had the game under control. I was trading almost until the end of the game mostly with more money in favor of Mallorca.

With this strategy I managed to be winning 2.974€ only on Mallorca market.

88th minute of the match: Sevilla scores, 1-1

However Sevilla stole me again part of my profit. I had a total of 2.042,27€ in favor of Mallorca. I closed with only 1.133€ profit in this market.

What now?

I’ve carefully analyzed the psychological moment of both teams:

… Sevilla was thrilled with the draw and he would search for the 2nd goal because he wanted to win the match at home.
… Mallorca wasn’t going to accept this result because he was winning (and playing better) most of the match.
With both teams in this state of mind, I concluded that it was very likely to be another goal in the final minutes.

Strategy:

I decided to Lay the draw because the probability of another goal was worth the risk of losing money in the drop of the odds if there were no more goals.

1 minute later…

90th minute of the match: Mallorca scores, 1-2

For the first time I won money with a goal in this match. I had 5.287€ bet against the draw.

After the 1-2 I split the profit and ensured 4.990€ profit no matter the result (this was a careful move due to the final pressure of Sevilla and the risk of Sevilla scoring).

The game ended. My profitability in this match was much affected by two goals against my strategy in those moments, but even so I managed to get profit in all markets. My final outcome was 8.010,66€.

It’s not raining anymore.

I’m going for a walk with Hermes.

I’ve got everything ready for tonight’s match between Getafe and Zaragoza.

Although I don’t know if this match will have enough liquidity to work on

I don’t know if it will be broadcasted in England, which by itself can drop drastically the liquidity of the match.

Besides, Getafe and Zaragoza aren’t exactly the most popular soccer teams from Spain…

Probably I will have to apply the “knowing not to do anything” in this match.

Getafe 1-1 Zaragoza

«But today there will be one match from the Premiership at the same time, for sure that it will still liquidity from this Spanish league match.»

As we predicted, it was a match with low liquidity.

When there is no liquidity, trading is harder and we must focus on punter analysis (simple betting).

Analyzing, I saw a match where Getafe would have the possession and Zaragoza would be trying the counter-attack.

I assumed the risk of Getafe score a goal making me lose money, but in my opinion the Lay on Getafe at an odd near 2 was a value bet.

5th minute of the match: 0-0, I’m betting already against Getafe

As the match proceeded, Getafe had the possession, Getafe’s odd dropped more.

… and I bet even more against Getafe.

10th minute of the match: 0-0, drop on Getafe’s odd

The trend continues. Getafe runs the game, has the possession, creates some opportunities but without great danger. The market, in general, thinks that Getafe will win the game.

I don’t think that way. With the drop of Getafe’s odd I bet even more against Getafe.

20th minute of the match: 0-0, drop on Getafe’s odd again

Until the 34th minute, Zaragoza in a counter-attack, flaw from Getafe’s goal-keeper, and goal from Zaragoza

After the goal, I bet in favor of Getafe at 5,1 thus winning 2.879€ independent of the final result after that moment.

34th minute of the match: Zaragoza scores, 0-1

And half time came without anything else relevant happening.

Now I’ll take the opportunity to demonstrate that this forum is frequented by people with valuable ideas, and that the entire community can benefit from the exchange of ideas.

On the topic to comment this match, during the half time it was written the following:

«Getafe’s players accused the goal. The half time came at a good time for them. I want to see how they will come out for the 2nd half, if they start well the Lay on Zaragoza has good value.»

This was exactly what I thought too.

Once the match restarted, I analyzed carefully the attitude of the teams in the field.

We could see that Michel’s speech to Getafe’s players during the halftime had effect and they came into the field with different attitude.

On the other side, it quickly became apparent that Zaragoza’s players would try to grab at any cost, that very important victory to get out of the last place in the league.

This attempt to grab at any cost, is a mistake that some teams, either consciously or unconsciously make. Put themselves to defense and the game starts to be played closer to their own goal area.

I’ve seen this movie many times and I know that the probability of the game ends with the victory of a team that follows in this mistake is far less than the probability that the 1,79 odd suggests (1,79 was Zaragoza’s odd at the halftime).

Then I decided to bet against Zaragoza.

By the 4 minutes of the second half, Getafe scores a goal!

70th minute of the match: 1-1, reopening of the market

Despite the goal had happen by the 49th minute, I could only close my position (bet back on Zaragoza) by the 70th minute because the Betfair market was suspended during all that period.

I managed to close with 14.237€ profit in this market due to my accurate reading of how the teams came out from the halftime.

Next I moved to the draw market and I trade (back/lay) until the end of the match managing to win more 700€ in this market.

93rd minute of the match: 1-1, end of the match

In all, I won 17.688,39€ in this match, which is very good taking into account the liquidity on the same: only 2,3 million euro.

I still have no idea which match will I make today.

I’ve already decided what will be the match tonight!

I believe that the more interesting match is “our” Braga vs Arsenal.

And you, what will you choose?

I had answered here in the forum:

Citação de: rami em Novembro 23, 2010, 05:48:03 17:48 17«Paulo, one question, what is your main reason to choose the match Braga vs Arsenal?»

Citação de: Paulo Rebelo em Novembro 24, 2010, 11:55:39 11:55 11

«First because there was one English team playing (= liquidity)
Second because there was Braga playing (= sentimental, I am Portuguese)
Third because I predicted a balanced match due to Arsenal would spare some players (balanced match = uncertainty = more margin to find value bets)»

However this match was a disappointment

It was the worst match from all season so far. The first half ended with only 2 shots on goal (one from Arsenal, another from Braga)…

It actually had liquidity, as all matches with English teams, plus I saw Braga playing (and winning) which was good. But the balance at the expense of decreased quality from Arsenal team for playing without several usual players meant a match without emotion. The match has a dominating Arsenal but without clear strategies, and a Braga unable to counteract this Arsenal.

I can resume in a few words my work in this match:

Failing to find anything with value in this match (any trends, any value odd), I spent the first half “trying” to trade in Arsenal’s market. Even that I couldn’t do right and I got to the halftime losing 176€.

Halftime, 0-0

Usually I can find a trend in the match and the market eventually adjusts to that.

In other cases I can’t find a value odd according to what is going on in the match but I can find a trend in the market and profit with trading.

In this match I couldn’t do any of that. Then I simply applied what I thought I would apply on the match Getafe vs Zaragoza from the other day (but that was not necessary), and I was far from thinking that I would have to apply it in a Champions League match:

Citação de: Paulo Rebelo em Novembro 22, 2010, 05:43:06 05:43 05
«Probably I would have to apply “knowing not to do anything” in this match.

I just stopped placing bets and watched the match hoping to find some opportunity.

And it finally appears… (for the worst reasons).

70th minute, 0-0, Frabregas is injured

In my opinion it was the key moment of the match. Arsenal needs his captain very much. I bet against Arsenal because from now on he would have more difficulties to win the match.

82nd minute, 0-0, Eboé is injured

I doubled my bet when Eboé was injured and left Arsenal playing with 10.

In the next play…

83rd minute, 1-0, Braga scores

I end up winning 2.179€ with this match.

I hope you understood the importance of, at the right time, I had stop making bets and simply await the emergence of an opportunity with a value bet.

More than making money with this match, I avoided losing money by avoiding bet without being convinced that I was betting with value.

Remember:

We have to have the merit to find value bets, but before that, we have to be lucky to be on the market when the value bets are there.

Paulo Rebelo